The downside of being a poker professional

I've been working fairly hard since early this summer on learning to play pot limit omaha. The games are good and there is a lot of action most times of the day. I started out playing 1/2 PLO which has a 200 dollar buyin and things seemed to go really well.




That is my lifetime graph at 1/2 PLO. I figured I was ready to up the stakes and moved on up to 2/4 PLO, and that is where I ran into some problems. As you can see, my graph for 2/4 PLO looks much different.




When learning a new game it takes a long time to "know" if you are a winner due to short term variance. Despite there being a significant skill component to playing, there is also a lot of luck that influences results over small samples - and 15-25k hands is a small statistical sample. There is a program available online that can measure your luck in "allin" situations, which is one form of luck. PLO is an action packed game that involves a lot of allins, so how you run in these spots will heavily influence your results.

This graph shows my allin luck at 1/2 PLO. The blue line graphs how much I actually won, the red how much I should have won if I had average luck.





So,I should have won about 10k but I have actually won over 12k. Over 28k hands I'm running good to the tune of over 10 buyins in allin situations. Not bad.

Now lets look at the same graph for 2/4 PLO where I'm losing a considerable number of buyins.




In this case, over 17k hands I have lost 3k when I should have won over 4k, nearly 20 buyins. This is pretty unlucky.


Short term variance like this makes it hard for me to determine whether I'm actually a winner in the 2/4 games. Constantly getting unlucky can also introduce "tilt" in even the best players, where I am not mentally playing my best game because I am too focused on the losses. Obviously I have no control over what happens after I am allin and results in these situations should not affect my play.

I'm playing more 1/2 recently to continue to work on learning the game and rebuilding my confidence. I feel like I am a long term winner at 2/4 and I continue to play in the games on occasion.

Out of the Main Event

I ended up losing fairly early in Day 2. i had chipped down to 7.5k and it folded to me in the small blind at 300/600 with a 75 ante. I look down at KQ and move allin. MattG is in the BB and has pocket queens. I did manage to make a king high straight, but there were four diamonds on board and he held the queen of diamonds.

That wraps up the world series for me this year, I may play one more event at the venetian before heading back home.

short day

The bellagio 5k went really quick for me. Its the 2nd level and I still have the 15k starting stack as I only played 2 hands level 1. Online player mig.com makes it 300 in early position, I call with black queens and the guy on my left also calls. A guy who is steaming because he just lost almost all his chips in a previous hand is on the button, he makes it 1500 of his 3000 chips. Mig.com thinks for a minute and makes it 4100. I move allin because Mig.com will make this play with a lot of worse hands to isolate the button. Now the guy on my left thinks for a bit and he moves allin. This was a completely unexpected turn of events. Mig.com thinks for a bit and folds. Button has 89 of clubs, but the other guy has AA. The tilter obviously makes a club flush and quadruples up and I'm out of the tournament.

Made Day 2

I made it through to day 2 of the main event. The day started off really well and I built up to 40k chips by the 2nd level ( we started with 20k). My first table was pretty good, however I got moved in level 2 to a really bad table that had 4 good players. At a 9 handed main event table, this is a pretty bad situation. I went on a steady decline after moving to this table and ended the day with 15k chips. The blinds will be 250/500 when play resumes on Wed, so I still have a decent stack. Luckily I also will begin day 2 on a new table.

Tomorrow I will be playing in a 5k tournament at Bellagio.

Back in vegas

I'm back in vegas and will be playing the world series main event on Sunday. I had a good week off and didn't play any real poker while I was gone. When I got back, Tony had just won a bellagio 3k event for 192k so we went out and celebrated a bit at the Yard House - a bar which supposedly has the worlds largest tap beer collection. We ended up going to bed around 4am pst, so my internal clock is all messed up given the time change.

Today I played some online tournaments. I final tabled the 100r on stars, but only finished 8th for 1500 or so. I also final tabled the stars 300 and finished 2nd for 11.5k. I had a few other small cashes as well. Not a bad return, hopefully the run continues tomorrow.

Another FT for our house

Tom Chambers made the FT of Event 43 Pot Limit Omaha 8 or better, his 2nd final table of the series. He's coming into the final table in 4th place. I have 10% of his winnings, so hopefully he wins his first bracelet and 200k.

I played the 1k rebuy today and made it to the dinner break. After dinner we get back I raise AQs the first hand, the BB moves allin and he doesn't have many more chips so I have to call. He has KK and I don't get lucky. Next hand I have 5k chips left at 300/600 blinds and am holding QQ. I move allin and my friend Jon calls with 66 in the big blind. Somehow he gets lucky and makes a straight and I'm out.

Tomorrow I'm playing the 5k 6max event. Its my last world series event before the main event on July 5th.

This past week

Since making the final table, tournaments have not been going well for me. I have not even come even close to making the money. I'm playing two more tournaments this week, the 1k rebuy tomorrow and the 5k 6max on Thursday. After that I am taking a much needed "vacation" for about a week before the 10k main event on July 5th. After the main event, I'll probably play some of the Bellagio cup tournaments which run until July 18th.

Good luck to Tony

My group of friends continues to have a strong world series as my Vegas housemate Tony Dunst made the final table of Event 29 $3K NL Holdem. It seems like someone I know is on the final table of nearly every event.

Yesterday didn't go well for me. I was out of the $2500 6 max event shorty after the first break. After that I headed to Bellagio and played a 1k tournament and finished 22nd when the tournament paid 18 spots. Today will be a $1500 tournament which is sure to have a huge field.

Finished in 5th

It was kind of bitter sweet, but I finished in fifth in my first wsop final table for 62k. I won't be keeping any of it as it is all due to my friends who pay for my buyins. I'm taking tomorrow off to play online, Monday we are all looking forward to the $2500 6 max event. Us online players feel we have a significant edge in 6 handed play because almost all live games are 9 handed.

First WSOP final table

I made the final table of Event 24.. We just got done playing at 5am and have to restart tomorrow at 3pm, so this is gonna be a short post. The final table will be broadcast live on espn 360 at 6pm EST.

Congratulations to my friend Scott who won Event 21 for 750k. My friends are doing really well this series, I hope tomorrow is my turn for a big score.

Another day 2

It was a really late night. I made the 2nd day of event 24 - a half pot limit omaha half pot limit holdem tournament. I have 41000 chips heading into day 2, well about the average. There are 85 players left, with 45 "making the money". We start at 3pm pacific tomorrow and the tournament will play until there are 9 players remaining.

Also, congratulations to my good friend Vanessa who won the $1500 dollar pot limit omaha event that I finished 13th.

Sigh 13th

I ended up finishing 13th in the $1500 PLO tournament, not bad for my first live PLO tournament. I lost a hand at the end where I had 50% chance to win. If I won that pot, I would have been 2nd in chips and made the final table.

Tomorrow I am playing the 2k no limit holdem tournament at noon. If I bust out of that before 6pm I will be playing the 2500 dollar half pot limit holdem, half pot limit omaha tournament.

$1500 PL Omaha

Apparently I have found my niche in $1500 Pot Limit events at the world series. I made day 2 of Event 19 . It's my 2nd live pot limit tournament and 2nd cash. There are 47 players remaining, with first place over $200k. I have 32k chips, which is a below average amount and nothing compared to my friend Vanessa who has over 200k chips. Play resumes tomorrow at 2pm west coast time. You can follow the live updates to see how I'm doing tomorrow.

A profitable Sunday

I got 2nd in the Absolute poker 75k today for 11k. I lost to a terrible player heads up at the end which is always disappointing, but these things happen in poker. After subtracting the cost of all entry fees today I probably profited for about 9k. Tomorrow I am going to wake up and play the $1500 shootout at noon.

Congrats to Tom

Tom ended up finishing 2nd for just over 142k.


I didn't make it very far in the tournament yesterday, but we had a fun table. I was seated on the right of Jean-Robert Bellande of Survivor fame. He was telling some pretty funny stories about survivor and poker throughout.

I ithink I will play the $1500 shooutout on Monday. In the evening we are planning to have a barbecue here at our house to celebrate Toms big score.

First final table of the summer for our house

One of my roommate here in vegas, Tom Chambers, has made the final table of Event 10. First place is over $200k. I have 10% of his action, so this could also be a big win for me. Hopefully we will be celebrating his win with a party at our house tonight. The final table starts at 4pm.

The rest of us are playing the $2500 dollar event at noon today. Yesterday I played the bellagio 2k which had a nice structure with 130 players. I got knocked out around 50th.

Event 7 2k NL

Today I played the 2k NL event. I feel like I played very well yesterday, but ended up getting rather unlucky. The tournament ended with me getting all my chips in with AsAh vs AdJc on a Jd4s2s board as a 91.5% favorite and losing to quad jacks. Today we are going to play the $1500 dollar 6 max event.

Event 3: Day 2

63 people started the day. It didn't take long for people to be eliminated. I won a few small pots to build up the 36000 from my starting stack on 31k. Then it folded to me in the small blind and I got all in vs the big blind with K9 vs his 99 and lost 13k. Not much happened from that point until I was eliminated. A player who hadn't played any hands raised to 7k on my right. I look down at pocket kings and move allin for 19k total. He thinks for a few seconds and calls. The flop comes AJT all spades. He has the 9 of spades and I have red kings. The turn is a 7 of clubs giving him a way to make a straight if he hits an 8 on the river. So there are 9 spades, 3 8's and 2 9's he can hit to win the hand. The river is some low spade and he wins the hand. I was out in 37th place.


Today we are going to play the 2k NL event at noon.

First World Series Cash

I made the 2nd day of Event 3 $1500 Pot Limit Holdem. There are 63 players remaining. We restart tomorrow at 2pm and will play until there are 9 players remaining. I have 30,000 chips which is slightly below average for the remaining field. You can follow updates for the tournament live at pokernews. They may mention me if I get involved in a big hand or get a lot of chips.

WSOP 2008

I'm in Vegas now for the World Series of Poker. I'll be staying here for about 6 weeks and playing a lot of tournaments. Last Saturday I played in Event 2 $1500 NL with over 4000 other people. I got off to a really good start and tripled the amount of chips I had by eliminating 2 players. Unfortunately after the first break things started to go wrong quickly and I was done just before the end of the fourth hour. Today I am playing in Event 3, a $1500 Pot limit tournament. I don't play pot limit holdem often, so hopefully I won't have a lot of problems adjusting.

Online cash games didn't go well in May, the database with my results is at home so I can't publish a graph but on poker stars and fulltilt playing holdem I lost about 7k. On Cake I probably made 7-8k. I'm still working on learning Pot Limit Omaha, I did really well in the $200 dollar buyin games, winning about 6k. Unfortunately I lost around 6k playing the $400 dollar games. So I pretty much broke even for the entire month. Hopefully this month will go better.

April Results

I'm finally getting around to posting my results for April cash games, and things went pretty well. I continued playing the 3/6 and 2/4 full ring and 6 max cash games and put in about 80 hours at the tables.





This month has some mixed results. I'm off to a very slow start on stars, down about 5k. However, the Cake games have been pretty good and I'm doing very well in the 5/10 games. I've also decided to start learning PLO and have gotten off to an incredibly fast start winning 25 buyins at 1/2 in a few thousand hands.

I'm leaving at the end of the month for Vegas for the World Series of Poker. Between now and then I'm going to try to put in a lot of hands. I will also be playing a lot of nightly tournaments as Full tilts quarterly FTOPS series has just started. Perfect timing as I need to practice some tournaments in preparation for the World Series.

grinding online

When I'm on the road, I typically do not put in a lot of hours playing online cash games. I'm usually too tired from playing a live tournament all day and end up just hanging out with friends playing chinese poker, gambling in the pit, or getting drunk. Since I got back from vegas, I've tried to put in a lot of hours playing cash games. I've mostly been playing a mix of games from 2/4 NL - 10/20 NL both full ring and six max. Most of the hands have been played at the 2/4 400$ buyin level. Towards the end of last year and beginning of this year I got a lot of coaching from Rob (BobboFitos online). I think his coaching help me think about the game on a much deeper theoretical level, but I needed to put in some hands to try these ideas in practice. Moving down in stakes from 5/10 - 2/4 has allowed me to work on my game without being as worried about the money. I've had quite a bit of success in the last two weeks, winning about 16k. Not a bad way too end the month.

I don't think I'm making any more live trips until the world series of poker, so I expect to continue to play a lot of online poker between now and the end of may. I'm going to put in more hands at 2/4 and 3/6 working on my game.

Wynn Classic 2k

I played the 2k NL event today. It only had 92 entrants which is a little disappointing, but I was able to make another nice run. The first key hand I recall was at the 100/200 level. I just got moved to a new table. A guy with a lot of chips makes it 1000 to go in the CO. I have 3200 left and move all in. He calls pretty quickly with KTs and I double up to 6k.

As I sit at the table, I realize this guy is really terrible and is open limping all kinds of trash hands. He open limps at 100 200 25a, a guy on his left calls too. I make it 1300 to go with 5200 left in my stack. The button flat calls and the terrible guy calls too. Flop is T85r. There is about 5200 in the pot and 5200 in my stack so I'm never folding now. It checks to me and I bet 2200. The button moves allin for 15k and the terrible guy calls instantly. Sigh, here we go again. I throw my chips in knowing that I will likely need to get lucky. Terrible guy has 85o and Button has KTs. So the only way I can win the pot is to hit an ace, or if the turn and river are the same card giving me a better two pair. Turn ace, river 8 and I triple up.

I get moved to a new table and Dutch Boyd is on my right. Before today I have never played with him. It folds to him in the sb at 300/600/100a. He makes it 1800. I raise to 5400. He thinks for a second and makes the call. The flop is J34 with 2 hearts. He checks, I bet 5k to try to induce. He quickly moves all in and I call. He doesn't improve and I double up to over 50k. I return from the dinner break with 56k, very happy with my chip count and looking to make a run at the final table.

After dinner, things begin to fall apart. It folds to me in the CO and I raise J8o to try to steal the blinds and antes. The BB reraises 5k mroe and I fold. Very next hand I raise QJs and the same guy calls in the SB. Flop is 848r. He checks, I bet about half pot and he calls. Turn is another 8. He leads about half pot and I fold because I've given up on trying to get people to fold full houses. The next hand I have AK and raise again. Same guy flat calls on the button. Flop is J44r. I check and he checks behind. Turn 2. We both check. River 3 we both check again. His TT is good.

I slow down a bit after that sequence. I still have over 40k chips when this hand occurs. I get KQs in the CO and raise to 2300 and 400/800/100a and a tight player calls me on the button. Flop is A62r. I bet 3500 and he calls. Turn is a King. I check, intended to fold since I know this guy has an ace. If he doesn't happen to have an ace, he will always check behind. He checks. River is a Q giving me two pair. I bet 8000 and he instantly calls me with AQ for a better two pair. That left me with 30k. Shortly after we change tables and we are down to 18 players left.

The blinds are now 600/1200/200a. I don't play any big pots, just raise and steal the blinds some. A guy on my right moves allin for 12000. I have JJ and also move allin to isolate. He has AA and I'm down to 18k. After that I just try to find good spots to push in. The final hand there are 14 left and the blinds are at 800/1600/200a. push for 17k with ATo. The button calls and then the BB moves allin. Button folds AQ face up and the BB has AK. I fail to hit a T and finish just short of the final table once again.

I'm going to play the 2k event tomorrow then probably head back home. The next live event I'll probably play is at Foxwoods in early april.

First cash in a while

I've played a few tournaments at the Wynn Classic. I actually had my first live cash since Bellagio when I finished 18th in the $1500 no limit event last Saturday. The fields were fairly small early in the series, but they seem to be getting bigger. Today the $1000 event had 258 entrants.

Yesterday I took a break from poker and casinos and went hiking at Red Rock Canyon. We just did a few short, easy hikes. Nothing too strenuous. It was nice to get outside and away from all the slot machines for the day.




Tomorrow I'm skipping the limit event. then Thursday I'll be playing the $1500 NL event.

LAPC 10k main event

The main event didn't go well for me. I started at a fairly tough table. I picked up AQ and AK a lot early and was playing them aggressively preflop vs people who were limping in. The problem was the limpers always called and I never flopped a pair. I also wasn't getting any credit with my continuation bets.

My friend nath was 2 to my right. A guy open limps, nath limps on the button and I check the BB with 42o. The flop comes J43r. I check, guy checks and nath bets on the button. Nath's range for betting the button in this spot is huge. I think my hand is too weak to just call not closing the action, so I decide to turn my hand into a semi bluff and check raise his 400 bet to 1250. Nath calls and the turn is an Ace. This is a pretty good card for me as it gives me a gutshot straight draw and it is also a good scare card if he has some weak jack that didn't believe my check raise. and I bet 2500. Nath calls really quickly. I'm pretty sure at this point he has Aces up most likely AJ and the only way I'm going to fire this river is if it's a 4 or a 5. River is an 8. I check he fires 3000 and I fold. He later told me he had A3. So I accidentally raised him for value on the flop and got unlucky on the turn. I really didn't think he would be calling the flop with a worse hand, but I guess he put me on a move.

I raise 99 in early position to 900 at 150/300 50a with about 8k total. Nam Lee calls in MP. The flop comes J34r. I bet about 1800 and he quickly calls. The turn is the 9s bringing a backdoor flush draw. I check after thinking for a few seconds. He quickly checks behind. The river is the 6s making the spade flush. I think for a while and then move allin for value because I think it will look bluffier to him than making a smaller bet for value. He starts tanking which is really good for me since I obviously have the best hand. After I while he says "If i have a pair I call you" and folds AQo face up.

The final hand I pick up AA with 8k at 150/300 50a and make it 800 nam lee calls on the button and the sb folds. flop is K86r. I bet 2200 and nam calls. Turn Q. I shove the rest in and he calls with 66 and that ended a pretty bad day for me overall.

I'm headed to Las Vegas wed or thursday to play in the Wynn poker classic.

A much better day

I skipped the 1k tournament yesterday because Ultimate Bet took some of us to a LA Kings game where we had seats on the ice, open bar and free food. It was a nice opportunity to get out of the casino for once and have some fun.



Before the game, I returned to the 10/20 NL game. Almost immediately I end up in a fun spot. I raise UTG to 70 with AhQs. A younger who is directly on my left and bought into the game for 15k calls, there is another caller in middle position. The flop comes QhJh4s. I lead out for 200 and the player on my left makes it 600 the other player folds. I started the hand with 2k, so I have about 1700 behind. I am faced with a decision here. This is a situation where I am usually slightly ahead of a drawing hand like 4hxh or Ahxh or way behind to 2 pair or 3 of a kind. It is possible that he could just have a weaker flush draw or KsTs or something, but it is not that likely he would raise me in this situation. My raise UTG followed by a pot sized bet on the flop in a full ring game shows a lot of strength. This guy is probably a very good player and he knows that trying to get some unknown player to fold aces or kings in this spot is suicide. Since I am holding the Ah, that eliminates a lot of potential drawing hands that he can have. He could have 5h4h or 6h4h but I'm not sure he calls UTG+1 with these hands preflop. This weights his range heavily towards hands that have me crushed and I should fold here. I didn't fold, because I am not playing good poker. I went allin and he quickly calls. He asks me if I have a set (3 of a kind). I say no, but this is good news for me since it means he probably has a draw. Turn Td river 6s. I table AQ. He shows 5h4h and I win a big pot. I get very lucky in this hand that he happened to have the one hand I could beat and then my hand held up. This is almost certainly a losing play in the long term. It would be somewhat closer if I didn't have the Ah in my hand, but it's probably still a fold.

The next big hand I played I raise QJs and get 3 bet small by the button who only has 1.2k total. I call and the flop comes Ts6s6h giving me a flush draw. I check and he bets about 1/2 pot. I put him all in and he quickly calls. Oops. Turn is the 7s making me a flush and a new enemy. The guy starts ranting about me going all in on a flush draw and immediately rebuys and moves to the seat on my left. Then he starts advising me to leave before he takes all my money. I really wanted to stay because this is a pretty good situation when someone is tilting and coming after you, but I decided against it and went to the hockey game.

Here is a hand I witnessed to give you an idea of how good the games are. There is a straddle to 40. A guy with 1200 makes it 140. It folds to the straddle who calls. Flop is A77r. Straddler checks, guy bets 240. Straddler makes it 480. Guy makes it 500 more leaving maybe 150 dollars behind. Straddler instantly moves allin. Guy says well I guess you do have a 7 and folds an Ace face up. I had to try hard not to laugh, his play is so terrible. Straddler shows him an Ace as he scoops the pot.


When I got back from the hockey game I decided to play some 5/10, not the best idea when I'm drunk but the players are bad enough that I still think I'm a favorite. I don't even remember any of the big hands except one where I somehow got myself in a 3 way all in with pocket 9s and turned a 9 to win a big pot. I left around 3 to get some sleep before the early morning satellite touranment. In total for the day I won about 5k.

LAPC Event 27 1.5k NLH

Today was kind of a rough day at the Commerce. I got there early to eat lunch and play some 10/20 NL before the tournament starts. I quickly lose about $800 without playing any real big pots.

The tournament starts off slow and I bleed down to 2500 chips from 3500 starting stack. Then I play my first big pot. I raise 99 in early position to 250 and get 2 callers. The flop comes 962 with 2 clubs. I bet 500 and the button calls. The turn is the Tc bringing a possible flush, but the button doesn't always have it, and if he does I can still improve to a full house on the river to win. I have about 1700 left which is about the size of the pot. I decide to move allin as any other bet size just looks odd. He tanks and folds.

I raise T9s in late position at 75/150 to 400 and get called by the guy on my left. The flop comes QT2r. We both check. The turn is a 5 I check he bets 700 and I call. The river is another low card, we both check he has 99 and I win another medium sized pot.

The critical hand comes next. A lady opens to 4o0 in middle position and online player mig.com moves allin for 1600 on the button. I have about 5000 chips to start the hand and AKs in the SB. I move allin as well. The lady has about 2000 more chips behind and calls with 99. This is a pretty good situation for me as I have 40% chance to win a big pot. Unfortunately I lose and am down to a short stack. The table breaks and I am moved to a new one.

The blinds go up to 100/200 and I am down to about 1500 chips when we break for dinner. The 2nd hand after we come back I am in the SB. I have 1100 chips after posting. UTG+1 makes it 600. Micheal Binger makes it 1700 on the button and I look down at TT. I've never played with UTG+1 so I don't know what his range is for opening. I'm getting 2-1 to call so I need 33% equity. I thought it was a pretty close decision but I decided to stick it in and gamble. Binger has AA and I'm done with the tournament.

I go down to where the cash games are and get seated at a table with Sir Watts. The is some guy who is only playing about a 400-600 dollar stack and is pretty drunk. He's in every pot and talking a lot. Two limpers to me, I limp with 77. The drunk guy makes it 180 with 120 behind. Every one else folds. I decide to gamble with him and put him allin. He calls with A9 and makes 2 pairs. This is the start of a bad night at the table.

The next decent size pot I lose is to a guy who puts on these batman sunglasses whenever he plays a hand. I raise AQ in middle position. Aggressive player calls and batman calls in the BB. The flop is QT2 with 2 spades. I bet 210, aggressive guy calls and batman makes it 600. He only has 400 more behind. I've seen him make some dumb bluffs and know he could easily have a flush draw here. I make it 900 total. Aggressive guy folds and batman calls. Turn is a 5c river Kh. Batman looks disappointed. I show him AQ. He looks at his hand and looks surprised and says 'rivered' and tables the K7 of spades. Nice.

I open KQ in on the button and the aggressive guy calls in the SB. Flop is K37r. He leads into me for 140 and I call. Turn is another king bringing a spade flush draw and he bets 260. I think and call. River is the 2h and he bets 1k pretty quickly. He has been pushing me around a bit, but generally seems to give up by the river. However, I think he could be valuebetting a worse king or a bluff. I call and he has 33. I might be able to fold the river, but I think it's pretty close.

In total I lost about 5200 yesterday in the cash games, leaving me up a measly $800 for the trip.

LAPC Event 22 2.5k NLH

Today I made my quickest exit of the series. I had chipped down to about 3.2k chips by level 2 when I pick up KK utg. I open to 300. The button flat calls. He is an older gentleman who seems to love to slow play his big hands. The flop comes T32r. I bet 500. He makes it 1000. I don't think he has a set here as I would expect him to slow play. But it doesn't really matter since I can't fold this without a super sick read, so I'm just thinking about what the best way is to get the rest of his money in the pot. I think he is most likely to make this raise with a pair of tens or JJ+. I decide to just move in to make sure I get maximum value out of a T before an overcard or flush comes on the board. He instacalls me with AA and my day is over.

I went downstairs after that and sat in the 10/20 NL game with a 2k stack. Things started out pretty wild when I play the first two hands and get bluffed the first hand by a guy who turns out to be pretty crazy. If had known that, I never would have folded. The 2nd hand I try to bluff him on the flop and turn but he calls me down and I give up on the river. Later I get into some more interesting pots.

There are 2 limpers to me and I limp on the CO with Qd6d. The button limps, sb completes and BB checks. The flop comes 3c8dTd. It checks to me and I bet 80. The button calls, sb calls and then short stack in the BB moves in for 400 dollars more. It folds to me and I have a decision to make. I'm getting about 2-1 on my money to call and need about 33% equity to call. On this board, I don't expect either of the deeper stacks in the SB or BB to be slow playing. Nor do I expect them to isolation shove a worse hand if I just call. I did a quick estimation in my head and I was pretty sure I had 37-38% equity.

I ran the math giving him a pretty wide range which includes top pair top kicker or better, any pair + flush draw, any nut flush draw, any king high flush draw and a few random naked flush draws which I think is pretty reasonable for a short stack in this spot.

Board: Td 8d 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.187% 38.18% 00.01% 25325 4.50 { Qd6d }
Hand 1: 61.813% 61.81% 00.01% 40996 4.50 { TcTd, TcTh, TcTs, 33-22, AdJd, ATs, Ad9d, Ad7d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdJd, KTs, Kd9d, Kh7h, Kd5d, Kd4d, Kd3d, Kd2d, Jd9d, Jd7d, Jd3d, T3s, 9d7d, 9d3d, 83s, 7h3h, 6h3h, 5d3d, 4d3d, ATo, T3o, 83o }


I just called in case one of the blinds was slow playing. If they shoved 2k more I can pretty safely fold as I could put them squarely on A3s or a set and I would not be getting the right price to call. However, I thought this was pretty unlikely and my cold call would be enough to get them to fold all their Ts so isolation shoving seemed pretty unnecessary. Button and sb folded and I was up against Jd3d. Against this hand I'm about 47% to win. A 2d hits on the river and I win a decent sized pot.

Later in the session a guy who just lost a big pot opens the CO for 60 and I just call on the button with 66. The flop comes K73r. He bets 130 and I call. I didn't think he was likely to 2 barrel bluff me much and it's likely I still have the best hand. Turn is a 4 giving me a gut shot and he checks. I bet 250 and he calls pretty quickly. Ok, now I almost surely do not have the best hand unless he is peeling with 65s, but that seems unlikely. I think his most likely hand is a weak K or a pair 88-QQ. The river is a Q and he instantly checks. I decide to fire one more barrel at this pot as a bluff and make it 500. He tanks for a while and makes the call with AK. If my read is right about his likely holdings then I think my bluff would be profitable as I don't think he calls with 88-JJ or some of his weaker kings like K9 or KT.

I get KK utg and make it 80 with about a 2k stack. A guy who posted debates and calls from early position. The BB also calls. The flop is 6h7h2c. BB checks I bet 250, poster folds and BB calls. The turn is the 7c and BB thinks for a second and leads into me for 500. He has one 1k chip behind. I think that he knows I'm very unlikely to have a 7 given where I raised from. He could very well be making this play as a semibluff with a flushdraw or a straightdraw. I move allin and when he doesn't call right away I know he doesn't have a 7 and I'm ahead. The river is the 3s. I table KK and he mucks.

A huge pot takes place between 3 players including the guy on my right where the flop is T77 2 hearts. Each player gets 2k in on the flop one guy is allin. Guy on my right who I tried to bluff earlier moves all in for 4k and a blank turn and is instacalled by TT. Guy on my right claims to have A7 other guy has AhQh.

The very next hand I'm utg with AA and make it 80. Button calls and now BB makes it 380 to go. He reloaded to 4k and I have 3.5k to start the hand. Now I'm in an interesting spot. I decide to just call to trap since he might be steaming and will bluff of more post flop. If I 4-bet he will fold everything but KK and he might even get away from that as my 4-bet will look really strong. The button also calls and the flop comes Jd7d3c. BB checks to me and I bet 700, button quickly folds and BB calls. Turn is a 2c. He checks I bet 1400 and he moves allin, I call and he has KK. I win a huge pot.

A guy open limps and a guy with 6k makes it 130. I decide to just flat call with AK. The limper also calls. Flop is AJ7 2 clubs. It checks to me and I bet 250. The limper pretty quickly moves allin for 850 more. Raiser folds and I think for a second and think with this board texture some sort of draw is most likely. I call turn is Kc and he tables Tc8c. I don't fill up on the river and lose the pot.

I leave after that and head back to the doubletree. I won about 3.6k on the session. At the hotel, I put in a chinese poker session with Bakes, Ray and Andy and lose $360 because I suck at the game. After I pay Ray his $160 I convince him to omaha high flip me for $160. I make a flush and get my $160 back, so I only lose $200 on the session.

Today is more online poker action including the $2500 ftops event.

LAPC event 19 NLH

Today started out pretty boring. I wasn't getting dealt any hands in good situations, so I was basically just watching everyone else play. Luckily no one in these things pays attention to how tight you are playing. In the beginning of the 50/100 level, I have 2600 chips left. There are 2 limpers to me in the SB and I look down at QQ. The first limper has about the same stack as me. I make it 450 and just the first limper calls. The flop comes J85 2 hearts. I bet 750, leaving around 1500 behind. The girl starts staring at me, trying to read my soul. After a minute or so she moves allin and I quickly call. She has 54 of diamonds and doesn't improve. I don't play many more pots this level and end it with 4500 chips.

When we start the 75/150 level the BB is still not back at this seat. It folds to the guy on my right and he makes it 500. I have 99 in the CO and decide to 3 bet and call a shove - we both have about the same starting stack. I make it 1500 folds back to him and he folds. I don't play any hands for an orbit or two.

A you internet guy open limps in MP which he has done a couple times. Two guys limp after. I'm in the SB and look down at Q5o. A hand that isn't even worth completing the SB with. I make it 1000 to go because I think that the first limper isn't the type to really limp a big hand and will rarely ever call. Once he folds I expect both of the other players to fold a very high percentage of the time. First limper quickly folds as do the other players and I pick up 675 chips.

Still at 75/150. I have 6k chips or so. A guy open limps in MP and CO to my right makes it 750. The limper is very loose and I suspect that CO is just trying to steal, despite putting in 750 of this 2500 chips. I look down at AQ on the button and put in a small reraise to 1600. I don't need to reraise big since I just want CO to know I'm committed to calling his shove, but if necessary I can still get away if the blinds or limper appear to have big hands. Everyone folds and CO tanks for a bit and moves in for 700 more which I quickly call. He has KJo and hits a J on the flop and river. I'm back down to 3.5k or so.

I make a live mistake next. At 100/200 I see there is a guy with two chips in the pot and think he limped, I look down at 99. The guy has about 2400 chips behind. I decide to make it 850 and shove any flop if he calls. Unfortunately he had raised, so my raise really was just a call. Flop comes K84. I check he bets 700, not a great spot but with just one overcard I could easily have the best hand. Unfortunately he has AK and I don't catch a 9 to win. That leaves me with 175 chips left in the SB. I call my last 75 chips blind after the button open limps, BB checks. the flop is AK4 and there is a bet and a call. Turn 5 and bb bets again, not looking good for me. Button folds and BB shows A9. I flip over my first card a K. I have outs, flip over the second one and its a 5. Cool, now I have 500 chips and it's time for a dinner break.

I go eat dinner with Mike, Shaun, and Kyle from tworags.com who I just met. Kyle treats us to a very nice dinner where I get steak and salad. A nice bonus for surviving until the dinner break. First hand after I get back I have KJo and it folds to me so I obviously move in. SB isolates to 2k and things aren't looking good as he has JJ. And that was the end of my tournament. Tomorrow is a limit holdem event, so most of us are going to play online as there is a 300rebuy ftops event in addition to the normal wed lineup.

LAPC event 18 2.5k NLH

I arrived in LA Sunday night and played the 2.5k tournament yesterday. I started out on a really good table with a lot of people who didn't seem to be very good at this game. As an example, early in the 25/50 level there is a limper UTG and an older gentleman makes it 300 from utg+1. The BB calls and the limper folds. The flop comes Qd7d6h. The BB checks and then utg+1 instantly moves all in for 5000 total. The BB starts tanking and finally makes the hero call with QdJh, the older man has AQ and BB gets knocked out.

Unfortunately I didn't have much luck accumulating chips early. One interesting hand I played also took place at the 25/50 level. The old man from AQ hand limps utg. There are two more limpers including the button. I complete the SB with 8d7d. BB checks and the flop comes 8c7h4s. I lead out for 200, the bb folds and the AQ gentleman makes it 700. I'm pretty overpairs to the board are a very large portion of his utg limping range that raises me on this flop. I start thinking about the best way to get all the chips in, then the button starts thinking and playing with his chips. It's still early in the tournament and I haven't seen the button get out of line yet - so this is not particularly good that he hasn't folded yet. He finally makes it 1600, leaving himself about 2.5k behind. Now I have a problem, top 2 pair isn't looking nearly as good. I have to fold as it is way too likely the button can beat my hand. UTG moves allin with TT and button snap calls him and shows 8s7s - the same hand I had. The button doubles up and I miss out on a nice opportunity, but I'm pretty happy with my fold as chopping with the button was probably the best case scenario.

Things don't go well for me at the 50/100 level and I somehow end up with about 1100 chips remaining at 75/150. With 7BB left, I really need to find a spot to open shove but the guy two to my right is limping or minraising 6 out of the last 7 hands. He limps utg and I look down at A9o and decide to go with it. I think it's ahead of his range as he will have a lot of broadway hands and suited connectors. It folds around to him and he snap calls with AK. I get there with a 9 on the flop and double up to about 2500.

The very next hand I get dealt AQs. This hand can be somewhat awkward to play from early position with 16bbs for a standard raise. Since I just shoved last hand with A9, I thought there was a good chance someone would look me up light if I just open shove. I get called by the AQ gentleman from earlier, this time he has A8o and I double up again to over 5600.

A few hands later AQ gentleman limps for 150. Button makes it 400. I have 44 in the BB and make the call. limper calls as well. Flop comes 652 2 diamonds. It gets checked around and the turn is a black 3. I lead out for 1k and AQ gentleman calls and button folds. The river is a Jack of diamonds and I think about it for a second and decide to check. I think vs this player that this is a mistake. I should make a blocking bet here of about 1k, I think he will pay off with worse hands despite 4 to a straight and 3 to a flush on board. Also, I think he is very unlikely to bluff raise me off the best hand. He checks behind with a set of 3s and I win another pot.

Later I have about 6k at 100/200/25a. I make it 600 AA in early position. AQ guy calls on the button with about 5k. BB also calls and covers us both. Flop comes KhJhTd. I have about 3x pot on a very scary board for AA and check. In a cash game when stack to pot ratios are much greater, a check is a pretty standard play on this flop. However, in a tournament with these shallow stacks, I think I need to just pot the flop and shove the turn if I get called. I'm in ok shape vs 2 pair hands and sets other than TTT aren't that likely since I would probably get 3 bet preflop by KK or JJ. The only hand that is really bad news for me is AQ or Q9. Button also checks behind and the turn is a black Q and I take it down with a bet. It turns out button apparently had TTT and decided to slow play this flop, which is a pretty terrible play on a board of this texture.

I get moved to a new table after this and ended up losing a small pot getting blinded down to about 5k. It folds to me in the small blind at 200/400/50a and I have K5s and make a pretty standard shove. Small blind calls with 99, but there is a K on the flop. For the 2nd time I get it in way behind and get lucky.

At 300/600/75a utg opens to 1800 and utg+1 calls. I'm utg+2 with 10k and have AKo. I move allin. Vannessa rousso is in the BB and pretty quickly moves allin for 20k. Everyone folds and she shows JJ. The river is an Ace and I double up to about 24k.

Later in the level I have 19k. Guy two to my right open limps like he does a lot. I look down at AJs and make it 2500. Button moves all in for 8.5k. It folds to me and I do some quick math and figure out I'm getting a little better than 2-1. Not a great spot, but I have to call. He has AK and I don't get lucky this time.

Now I'm down to 10k again still at 300/600/75a. Guy two to my right open limps, I complete the SB with Q9s. BB checks and the flop is J99 2 hearts. I lead out for 1800 and both players call. I say to myself, no heart please. Turn is the 5h. I check, BB checks, Button bets pot. I have only about a pot sized bet left so I'm getting 2-1 to call. I'm pretty sure BB doesn't have a flush. I'm not happy about it, but decide that since button bet so much he's possibly trying to protect a worse 9 or semibluffing with a hand with a big heart in it and make the call. Button shows 3h4h and I don't get lucky on the river and finish the tournament in 40th place.

After the tournament, I'm hanging out at the hotel with Vanessa, Thayer, and Andy. It's 1:30am, they decide they are hungry but room service is closed. Thayer mentions there is a carl's burger two blocks away and he offers to go fetch for $1000. Vanessa offers to do it for $900. Bids continue until I offer to do it for $150. They accept and pay me $50 each to fetch some burgers and oreo shakes. It's kinda nice hanging out with such ballas.

Later we play $20 a point chinese, I set one of my hands wrong and cost myself 5 or 6 points, but still end up $40. One of my only winning chinese sessions ever, I'm such a fish at that game.

An interesting cash hand

I played this hand the other day on poker stars which I thought was somewhat interesting.


Free hand converter brought to you by CardRunners

Seat 1: Fu Burger ($1035.60)
Seat 2: murph0511 ($1108)
Seat 3: gladia2r ($1153.85) -
Seat 4: redargoe ($1098.05) -
Seat 5: redeye3030 ($1487.30) -
Seat 6: PiS.ToTo ($600)


PRE-FLOP:

redargoe posts small blind $3
redeye3030 posts BIG blind $6
Dealt To: redeye3030


FOLD PiS.ToTo
FOLD Fu Burger
RAISE murph0511 ($24)
FOLD gladia2r
FOLD redargoe
RAISE redeye3030 ($96)
CALL murph0511 ($72)


FLOP:

Pot: $201


CHECK redeye3030
CHECK murph0511

Not exactly the flop I was hoping to see. I elect to check to control the size of the pot.

TURN:

Pot: $201


CHECK redeye3030

The turn pairs the Q. I check again to control pot size and also to give my opponent an opportunity to bluff.

BET murph0511 ($156)
CALL redeye3030 ($156)

He bets about three quarters of the pot and I obviously just call.


RIVER:

Pot: $513


CHECK redeye3030
BET murph0511 ($348)
CALL redeye3030 ($348)

The river pairs the J. I check again because there are no worse hands that can call. My opponent fires about three quarter pot again. At this point I start trying to think of hand combinations that contain a Q or J that he would play this way. If he has QT or QJ he is almost always going to bet the flop. I think he also bets the flop with KQ a decent amount of the time. I think AQ is the most probable Qx hand he can have. I really don't think there are many Jx hands that he plays this way. Maybe he bets the turn with KJ or AJ a small portion of the time.

Another key factor for me deciding to call the river was that if he did bluff the turn with air or a semibluff, I think he will always fire a second barrel on this river card. My hand is obviously a marginal hand that wants to get to a cheap showdown. It's possible I have a hand like AJ, but more likely I have a one pair hand - or I could have had KTs and got counterfeit.

SHOWDOWN:
murph0511:

redeye3030:

Travelling around

I decided to create a blog to chronicle my adventures in the land of live poker tournaments. I've been traveling around playing tournaments since Foxwoods WPT last fall. Besides Foxwoods, I played the Bellagio five diamond classic, PCA in the bahamas and I just got back from the Borgata winter open. The next stop on the tour is the LA poker classic. I'll be there from Feb 10th-28th, playing in all the No Limit Holdem tournaments held during that time. After that, I'm headed to Vegas for the Wynn Poker classic from Feb 28th-Mar 19th.